基于混沌时间序列分析方法的矿山塌陷区范围预测

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.02.249

黄金科学技术 ›› 2019, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 249-256.doi: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.02.249

基于混沌时间序列分析方法的矿山塌陷区范围预测

曾俊晖(),李夕兵()

中南大学资源与安全工程学院，湖南长沙 410083

收稿日期:2018-01-23 修回日期:2018-03-28 出版日期:2019-04-30 发布日期:2019-04-30
通讯作者: 李夕兵 E-mail:shvezjh@163.com;xbli@csu.edu.cn
作者简介:曾俊晖（1993-），男，甘肃白银人，硕士研究生，从事采矿稳定性和岩层移动方面的研究工作。shvezjh@163.com|李夕兵(1962-)，男，湖南宁乡人，教授，从事硬岩开采及岩石动力学方面的研究工作。xbli@csu.edu.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目“深部资源开采诱发岩体动力灾害机理与防控方法研究”(编号：41630642)

Prediction of Mine Subsidence Area Based on Chaotic Time Series Analysis

Junhui ZENG(),Xibing LI()

School of Resources and Safety Engineering，Central South University，Changsha 410083，Hunan，China

Received:2018-01-23 Revised:2018-03-28 Online:2019-04-30 Published:2019-04-30
Contact: Xibing LI E-mail:shvezjh@163.com;xbli@csu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

地下开采所引发的地表变形对矿山工业生产造成了严重危害，因此准确预测矿山塌陷区范围对于矿山安全生产具有重要意义。将混沌时间序列分析方法应用于矿山塌陷区范围预测中，以相空间重构理论为基础，采用小数据量算法计算得到时间序列的关键指标——最大Lyapunov指数，研究了塌陷区在相空间相点距离的演变规律，建立了塌陷区范围边界预测模型，并应用该模型对红岭铅锌矿塌陷区范围进行了分析预测。结果表明，矿山塌陷区范围变化具有混沌特性，时间序列分析方法能够很好地反映塌陷区范围的内在规律，通过计算得出红岭铅锌矿塌陷区范围时间序列的最大Lyapunov指数大于0，该矿山塌陷区范围的预测值与实际值基本吻合，误差大小不超过0.1%，验证了该方法的可靠性，为矿山塌陷区预测提供了一种新思路。

关键词: 地下采矿, 矿山监测, 混沌时间序列, 相空间重构, Lyapunov指数, 地表变形规律, 塌陷区预测

Abstract:

With the advance of mining to deep in domestic underground metal mines,surface subsidence caused by mining has seriously threatened the industrial production of the mine and the ecological environment of the mining area.Therefore，accurately predicting the extent of mine subsidence area is of great significance to mine safety production and ecological protection of mining areas.Because the mine subsidence area is a complex system，it contains various random factors，and the evolution process of the system is often accompanied by the exchange of energy，showing nonlinear characteristics.This paper demonstrates the mine subsidence area as a nonlinear dissipative dynamic system.Combined with the time series analysis method in chaos theory，the range of mine subsidence area is predicted.The specific method studied in this paper is based on the phase space reconstruction theory，and the phase space reconstruction of the deformation time series of the mine subsidence area is carried out.A small data amount algorithm is used to calculate the key index of the time series-the largest Lyapunov exponent.According to the calculation results，the chaos of the mine subsidence zone system is identified.The evolution law and energy variation law of the phase distance of the collapse zone in the phase space are studied.The prediction model of the boundary of the subsidence zone is established.The model is used to analyze and predict the subsidence zone of the Hongling lead-zinc mine.The results show that the formation and expansion of the subsidence area of the Hongling lead-zinc mine is the result of the comprehensive effects of all kinds of factors such as geological conditions，mining engineering operations and inherent nonlinear characteristics.The maximum Lyapunov exponent and associated dimension of the time series of the subsidence area of the Hongling lead-zinc mine are calculated.It is verified that the variation of the subsidence area of Hongling lead-zinc mine has chaotic characteristics.The time series analysis method can well reflect the inherent law of the range change of the subsidence area.The chaotic characteristics of the different locations in the collapsed zone are different in the phase space due to different geological conditions and mechanical properties.The established mine subsidence area prediction system can better predict the change of the subsidence area.The predicted value is basically consistent with the actual value，and the error size does not exceed 0.1%，which verifies the reliability of the method.It provides a new idea for the prediction of mine subsidence area and guides mine safety production.

Key words: underground mining, mine monitoring, chaotic time series, phase space reconstruction, Lyapunov index, surface deformation law, subsidence area prediction

中图分类号:

TD31

曾俊晖,李夕兵. 基于混沌时间序列分析方法的矿山塌陷区范围预测[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2019, 27(2): 249-256.

Junhui ZENG,Xibing LI. Prediction of Mine Subsidence Area Based on Chaotic Time Series Analysis[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2019, 27(2): 249-256.

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时间/d	实测值/m	预测值/m	相对误差/%
390	29.42	29.61	0.65
420	31.43	31.68	0.80
450	35.06	35.01	0.14
480	40.85	41.09	0.59
510	49.88	50.21	0.66
540	57.02	56.72	0.53
570	66.14	66.57	0.65
600	75.05	74.45	0.80

时间/d	实测值/m	预测值/m	相对误差/%
390	25.06	25.25	0.76
420	26.08	26.32	0.92
450	28.71	28.65	0.21
480	33.49	33.73	0.72
510	41.55	41.86	0.75
540	48.62	48.36	0.53
570	59.83	59.31	0.87
600	71.69	71.11	0.81

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基于混沌时间序列分析方法的矿山塌陷区范围预测

Prediction of Mine Subsidence Area Based on Chaotic Time Series Analysis

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