基于RG-BN理论的破碎盘区矿柱群稳定性分析

doi:10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2023.06.087

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了准确获取矿柱群稳定性情况，通过分析矿柱群失稳机理，基于重整化群理论和贝叶斯网络建立矿柱群稳定性分析模型。以铜坑矿92号矿体矿柱群为研究对象，运用多项逻辑回归模型推导单个矿柱的失稳概率计算公式，将单个矿柱失稳概率输入贝叶斯网络得到矿柱群失稳概率。通过与二维重整化群模型得到的矿柱群临界失稳概率进行比对来分析矿柱群稳定性情况。研究结果表明：该方法能得到较为准确的矿柱群失稳概率，且通过贝叶斯网络概率反演，对矿柱进行敏感性分析可以获得矿柱群最安全回采顺序。

关键词: 矿柱群, 重整化群, 贝叶斯网络, 失稳概率计算, 敏感性分析, 矿柱回采优化

Abstract:

After mining operations，a large number of broken ore pillars will be left behind，forming a group of ore pillars.The group of ore pillars is of great significance for safe underground operations and the recovery of ore pillars resources.Under the influence of high ground stress，geological weak surface structure，free face generation，blasting vibration and other factors，the ore pillars group is very prone to instability，collapse，resulting in disaster of a large area of instability ore pillars group，thus causing great harm to underground workers and equipment.In order to strengthen the safety control of the mine pillars group，the stability analysis was carried out based on the renormalization group theory and Bayesian network.The renormalization group is a scaling transformation group.The self-similarity transformation of the basic unit can be used to describe the whole system，which is similar to the process in which the instability of a single pillar ultimately leads to the instability of the pillars group.Bayesian network can also overcome the uncertainty in the process of the instability of the pillars group.Therefore，based on the renormalization group theory and Bayesian network，the stability analysis model of pillars group was established.A pillars group in Tongkeng mine was taking as the research object.Firstly，the critical instability probability of the pillars group was derived based on the two-dimensional renormalization group model.Secondly，the multiple logistic regression model was used to deduce the calculation formula of the instability probability of a single pillar，then the stability，instability and instability probability of the pillar was calculated，and the stability probability of a single pillar was input into the Bayesian network to obtain the instability probability of the pillars group.Finally，by comparing with the critical instability probability of the pillars group obtained from the two-dimensional renormalization group model，the stability group of the pillars group was obtained.The research results show that this method can more accurately obtain the instability probability of the ore pillars group，and by defining the stability probability of a single ore pillar to carry out Bayesian network probability inversion and sensitivity analysis on the ore pillars，can design the optimal mining route of the ore pillars，and achieve safe，efficient and low loss recovery of pillars resources in the panel.This method can also provide reference for stability analysis and pillars resource recovery of similar mine pillar groups.

Key words: pillars group, renormalization group, Bayesian network, calculation of instability probability, sensitivity analysis, pillar recovery optimization

中图分类号:

TD73

高峰, 李成成, 覃庆韩, 欧恩国. 基于RG-BN理论的破碎盘区矿柱群稳定性分析[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2023, 31(6): 900-910.

Feng GAO, Chengcheng LI, Qinghan QIN, Enguo OU. Stability Analysis of Broken Ore Pillars Group Based on RG-BN Theory[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2023, 31(6): 900-910.

图/表 11

图1

图2

图3

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图5

图6

表1

表2

单个矿柱稳定性概率分布"

矿柱编号	$b / h$	$σ P / σ R ?$	$P s ? / %$	$P u ? / %$	$P f ? / %$
T209-210	0.196	0.112	61.219	36.429	2.351
T210-211	0.264	0.139	54.051	42.488	3.461
T211-212	0.375	0.169	48.788	46.653	4.560
T212-213	0.221	0.163	38.666	54.483	6.851
T111-112	0.179	0.158	37.841	55.134	7.025
T115-S1	0.289	0.204	25.560	62.291	12.149
T313-314	0.241	0.149	47.028	48.194	4.778
T501-502	0.210	0.144	47.084	48.188	4.728
T502-503	0.216	0.165	36.788	55.807	7.405
1号间柱	0.328	0.124	65.851	32.283	1.867
2号间柱	0.424	0.091	83.283	16.240	0.477
3号间柱	0.351	0.124	67.812	30.523	1.664

表2

图7

图8

图9

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矿柱编号	矿柱长度l/m	矿柱宽度b /m	矿柱高度h /m	岩石单轴抗压强度σ_c/MPa	上覆岩层厚度H /m	密度ρ/（kg· m^-3）
T209-210	80	11	56	166.32	256	2 660
T210-211	80	14.5	55	155.88	255	2 620
T211-212	80	21	56	164.78	267	2 600
T212-213	80	21	95	157.58	247	2 660
T111-112	80	15	84	142.11	259	2 690
T115-S1	80	26	90	148.85	260	2 660
T313-314	70	14	58	151.35	254	2 660
T501-502	70	13	62	147.32	248	2 606
T502-503	70	14.6	69	145.32	264	2 670
1号间柱	165	20	61	141.24	249	2 606
2号间柱	337	25	59	154.59	252	2 660
3号间柱	112	20	57	168.89	244	2 600

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