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采选技术与矿山管理

经济政策不确定性、投资者情绪与黄金价格波动

  • 郑明贵 , 1, 2 ,
  • 彭群婷 , 1 ,
  • 陶思敏 1 ,
  • 刘丽珍 1
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  • 1. 江西理工大学矿业发展研究中心,江西 赣州 341000
  • 2. 中国科学技术大学管理学院,安徽 合肥 230026
彭群婷(1999-),女,江西赣州人,硕士研究生,从事矿业贸易与投资方面的研究工作。

郑明贵(1978-),男,安徽颍上人,教授,博士生导师,从事资源经济与管理方面的研究工作。

收稿日期: 2022-09-25

  修回日期: 2022-11-07

  网络出版日期: 2023-01-06

基金资助

国家社会科学基金项目“中国战略性矿产资源产业链供应链安全稳定战略研究(2025—2060)”(22XGL003)

国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国战略性矿产资源国家安全评估与预警系统研究(2020—2050)”(18AGL002)

江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地江西理工大学矿业发展研究中心2022年度重大招标课题“突发环境下战略性矿产资源产业战略管理理论与方法”(KYZX2022-1)

江西理工大学重大项目培育计划“大数据驱动下国家矿产资源安全战略管理现代化研究”(19ZDPY-08)

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Investor Sentiment and Gold Price Volatility

  • Minggui ZHENG , 1, 2 ,
  • Qunting PENG , 1 ,
  • Simin TAO 1 ,
  • Lizhen LIU 1
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  • 1. Mining Development Research Center, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, Jiangxi, China
  • 2. School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026, Anhui, China

Received date: 2022-09-25

  Revised date: 2022-11-07

  Online published: 2023-01-06

本文亮点

黄金在维持金融稳定和趋避风险中发挥着重要作用。以2011—2021年数据为样本,使用GARCH-MIDAS模型探究经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪对黄金价格波动的影响。研究结果表明:(1)黄金价格波动具有自相关性,长期影响为正;(2)黄金价格在短期内会受到经济政策不确定性和投资者情绪变化的影响,正向冲击能够增大黄金价格的短期波动,就长期来看,黄金价格会受到经济政策不确定性的负向影响,但投资者情绪的长期影响不显著;(3)经济政策高不确定性会引起国内投资者的关注,并反映在黄金价格波动中。研究结果为讨论黄金价格波动提供了新视角,也为实现风险控制或金融稳定提供了参考。

本文引用格式

郑明贵 , 彭群婷 , 陶思敏 , 刘丽珍 . 经济政策不确定性、投资者情绪与黄金价格波动[J]. 黄金科学技术, 2022 , 30(6) : 891 -900 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2022.06.127

Highlights

Gold plays an important role in maintaining financial stability and risk aversion.It is not only a haven against uncertainty,but also a key factor affecting investors’sentiment and decision-making behavior. The-refore,it is of great value to investigate the impact of uncertainty risk and investors’risk aversion decision on gold price. At present,there is no consensus on the impact of economic policy uncertainty on gold price. Few scholars incorporate economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment into the research framework at the same time,and few literatures study high uncertainty separately.In order to better explore the above issues,based on risk aversion and expectation theory,economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment were incorporated into a unified analysis framework.With data from 2011 to 2021 as samples,GARCH-MIDAS model was used to explore the impact of economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment on gold price volatility. Furthermore,the influence changes under the environment of high economic policy uncertainty were investigated.The results show that:Firstly,gold price fluctuation has autocorrelation,and the long-term impact is positive.Secondly,in the short term,gold prices are affected by economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiment changes,positive shocks can increase the short-term volatility of gold prices,in the long term,gold prices will be negatively affected by economic policy uncertainty,but the long-term impact of investor sentiment is not significant.Finally,high economic policy uncertainty will be more noticeable to domestic investors and reflected in gold price volatility.These contents not only provide a new perspective for the discussion of gold price volatility,but also provide a reference for the realization of risk control or financial stability.

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我国央行11月增储黄金103万盎司至6 367万盎司

12月7日,国家外汇管理局统计数据显示,11月中国增持黄金103万盎司(32.036 t),持有黄金达到6 367万盎司(1 980.359 t)。加上11月黄金价格出现反弹,导致11月我国储备资产的增幅大于外汇储备的增幅,我国11月黄金储备市值为1 116.5亿美元。这是我国央行自2019年10月以来首次增加黄金储备。

自2018年12月至2019年9月,央行连续10个月增持黄金后,按下了“暂停键”。上海山金实业发展有限公司贵金属产业部总经理蒋舒分析认为,我国央行在3年后首次增加黄金储备,一方面体现出我国央行对于加入近年来各国央行不断增储黄金的理念认同和兴趣上升,另一方面第三季度持续低迷的金价增强了增储黄金的吸引力,显示出央行黄金增储择时能力的增强。

“当然在此时减持美债,增持黄金,主要是美国当前面临的高通胀,低增长的经济格局,高通胀会稀释美元信用和购买力,低增长则影响美国政府未来的偿还债务的能力,所以包括我国在内的很多央行,在今年都增持了黄金。”粤宝黄金投资总监宋蒋圳说。

我国外汇储备中美元资产仍然占比较高,黄金占比的总体水平仍然处于低位,随着中美贸易关系的疏离,同时为了确保人民币在国际市场的稳定和信用水平,在减少美元资产的同时,增加黄金的外汇储备。世界黄金协会最新数据表明,各国央行的黄金需求并未出现减弱迹象。2022年10月,全球央行的总黄金储备净增加31 t(环比减少41%)。根据这一初步数据比对,当前全球央行黄金储备已提升至1974年11月的36 782 t以来的最高水平。

近年来,央行购买始终是黄金需求中最为强劲的组成部分,根据世界黄金协会今年的央行调查报告显示,25%的受访央行表示会在未来12个月内增加黄金储备。蒋舒分析说,全球各国央行外汇储备多元化战略对于黄金的青睐,在很大程度上折射出各国央行对于美元本位的国际信用货币体系信心的下降。第三季度在国际金价因为美联储强势加息而“跌跌不休”时,央行增储黄金的行为不仅在事后看来是选择了良机,更是在一定程度上成为推动11月国际金价大举回升的动因。宋蒋圳认为,央行增持黄金,一般会对金价起到中度支撑作用,金价未来大幅下行的可能越来越小。虽然美联储仍然维持加息货币政策,但加息节奏已经放缓,对金价的利空压力已经释放。

脚注

中国黄金报)

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