A Project Risk Evaluation Model for Overseas Mining Projects’ Mergers and Acquisitions
Received date: 2019-05-12
Revised date: 2019-07-02
Online published: 2019-08-19
Identified the project risks of transnational mining M&A,and established an evaluation index system including four grade Ⅰ indexes and eleven grade Ⅱ indexes,which was applied to a case,and the evaluation results are consistent with the fact.Thus,it provides a more scientific evaluation standard for the project risk evaluation of transnational mining M&A.It is known that risk identification is very important to establish a project risk evaluation index system,index grading is the basis which should be considered according to the data issued by the authority and the accepted classification rules,and the number of qualitative indexes should be reduced to make the results more objective.A TFN-RS empowerment model was established,that is,using the triangular fuzzy number theory to determine the subjective weights,using rough set theory to determine the objective weights,which solves the existing problem of single subjective or objective empowerment,so that the weight empowerment is more scientific.It is shown that the weights of the geological resource conditions and the economic benefit conditions are relatively larger,29.79% and 29.82%,respectively.Therefore,in the process of transnational mining M&A,obtaining resources and economic benefits are the main motives.In terms of grade Ⅱ indexes,the service life,infrastructure and internal rate of return are the most important indexes.This paper established a project risk evaluation model for transnational mining M&A based on the cloud and matter-element theory,which can better solve the fuzzy problems of the risk level’s boundary division and quantitatively evaluate each project risk level.It is conducive to the further identification of risk factors and the development of risk control strategies.Applied the established risk evaluation model into a case,it shows that the combination of TFN-RS model and the cloud matter-element model is one of the effective methods to evaluate the project risks of transnational mining M&A.It showed that the mining technology conditions and the geological resource conditions of the project are in a “lower” risk level,the external construction conditions are in a “general” risk level,the economic benefit conditions are in a “low” risk level,and the project risk level is in a “lower” risk level.But the potentiality of mineral resources,the engineering geological conditions and the infrastructure are in a “high” risk level,which are the main project risk sources.General recommendations are as follows.Before transnational mining M&A,enterprises should do their due diligence and collect detailed data as much as possible.Decision criteria is as fallow:If the evaluation result is in a “high” risk level or above,it should be carefully decided or even directly rejected; If the evaluation result is in a “general” risk level or below,it should be treated differently,that is,carefully analyze the grade Ⅱ indexes and pay particular attention to some extreme indexes which may bring forward risks,and then estimate their possibility and scopes from the view of evading or reducing risks in the future,and then make further decisions.Corresponding risk control strategies should be made after the M&A and should also be adjusted while implementation so that the operational risks can be reduced and a good success rate can be got.
Minggui ZHENG , Wei WEN , Xin YANG . A Project Risk Evaluation Model for Overseas Mining Projects’ Mergers and Acquisitions[J]. Gold Science and Technology, 2019 , 27(4) : 598 -608 . DOI: 10.11872/j.issn.1005-2518.2019.04.598
1 | 汪莹,张畅,芦翠杰 .我国矿产资源企业国际化发展的资本运营风险研究——基于海外并购的分析[J].国际贸易,2015(5):47-52. |
1 | Wang Ying , Zhang Chang , Lu Cuijie .Research on capital operation risk of international development of Chinese mineral resource enterprises——Based on the analysis of overseas M&A[J]. Intertrade,2015(5):47-52. |
2 | 郑明贵,文唯,杨欣 .海外矿山项目并购外部风险评价[J].资源开发与市场,2017,33(7):825-829. |
2 | Zheng Minggui , Wen Wei , Yang Xin .An external risk evaluation model for overseas mining projects’ M&A [J]. Resource Development and Market,2017,33(7):825-829. |
3 | Levary R R , Wan K . An analytic hierarchy process based simulation model for entry mode decision regarding foreign direct investment[J].The International Journal of Management Science,1999,27(6):661-677. |
4 | Brouthers K D , Brouthers L E , Werner S .Transaction cost-enhanced entry mode choices and firm performance [J]. Strategic Management Journal,2003,24(12):1239-1248. |
5 | Bryson J .Managing HRM risk in a merger[J]. Employee Relations,2003,25(1):14-30. |
6 | Mishra S , Prakash A J , Karels G V ,et al . Bank mergers and components of risk:An evaluation[J].Journal of Economic and Finance,2005,29(1):85-96. |
7 | Jinjarak Y . Foreign direct investment and macroeconomic risk[J]. Journal of Comparative Economics,2007,35 (3):509-519. |
8 | Sarala R M .The impact of cultural differences and acculturation factors on post-acquisition conflict[J].Scandinavian Journal of Management,2010,26(1):38-56. |
9 | Stucchi T .Emerging market firms’ acquisitions in advanced markets:Matching strategy with resource-,institution-and industry-based antecedents[J].European Management Journal,2012,30(3):278-289. |
10 | 叶建木,王洪运 .跨国并购风险链及其风险控制[J].管理科学,2004,17(5):64-68. |
10 | Ye Jianmu , Wang Hongyun .Research on the risk chain of CB M&A and its control with real option[J].Management Sciences in China,2004,17(5):64-68. |
11 | 单宝 .中国企业跨国并购的风险与对策[J].科技管理研究,2006,26(9):195-197. |
11 | Shan Bao .The risks of Chinese enterprises’ transnational M&A and its countermeasures[J]. Science and Technology Management Research,2006,26(9):195-197. |
12 | 温巧夫,李敏强 . 中国企业海外并购的风险与对策研究——基于2000—2005年中国企业海外并购实证分析[J]. 经济理论与经济管理,2006,26(5):24-29. |
12 | Wen Qiaofu , Li Minqiang .Overseas M&A by Chinese firms:Risks and countermeasures—empirical analysis based on 2000—2005[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management,2006,26(5):24-29. |
13 | 胡国松,张娟 .石油企业跨国并购中的风险与防范[J].天府新论,2007(5):57-60. |
13 | Hu Guosong , Zhang Juan . The risks of Chinese petroleum enterprises’ transnational M&A and its countermeasures [J]. Tianfu New Idea,2007(5):57-60. |
14 | 周金瑾,李富兵 .境外矿业并购风险分析[J].中国矿业,2009,18(10):43-47. |
14 | Zhou Jinjin , Li Fubing .Risk analysis of overseas mining merger and acquisition[J].China Mining Magazine,2009,18(10):43-47. |
15 | 张建红,卫新江,海柯·艾伯斯 .决定中国企业海外收购成败的因素分析[J].管理世界,2010(3):97-107. |
15 | Zhang Jianhong , Wei Xinjiang , Ebbers Haike . Factors affecting the success or failure of Chinese enterprises’ overseas M&A[J].Management World,2010(3):97-107. |
16 | 肖辉,熊毅 .中国矿业企业海外投资风险评价[J].当代经济,2011(15):48-50. |
16 | Xiao Hui , Xiong Yi . Risk assessment for Chinese mining enterprises’ overseas investment[J].Contemporary Economics,2011(15):48-50. |
17 | 杜晓君,刘赫 .基于扎根理论的中国企业海外并购关键风险的识别研究[J].管理评论,2012,24(4):18-27. |
17 | Du Xiaojun , Liu He .A grounded-theory-based study on the key risk identification of Chinese enterprises’ cross-border M&A[J]. Business Review,2012,24(4):18-27. |
18 | 汤吉军,安然 .国有企业跨国并购风险防范的制度研究[J].经济体制改革,2015(3):118-123. |
18 | Tang Jijun , An Ran .The institutional analysis of risk prevention of cross-border merger and acquisition in state-owned enterprises[J]. Reform of Economic System,2015(3):118-123. |
19 | 张元钊 .政治风险影响了中国企业跨国并购吗——基于面板负二项回归模型的实证分析[J].国际商务,2016(3):129-138. |
19 | Zhang Yuanzhao .Does political risk affect Chinese enterprises’ cross-border mergers and acquisitions?—An empirical analysis of the panel negative binomial regression model [J]. International Business,2016(3):129-138. |
20 | Baillie R T , Bollerslev T .A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets[J].Journal of International Money and Finance,1990,9 (3):309-324. |
21 | Barkema G T , Mccabe J . Monte Carlo simulations of conformal theory predictions for the three-state Potts model [J]. Journal of Statistical Physics,1996,84(5/6):1067-1075. |
22 | Nitecki D A .Program evaluation in libraries:Relating operations and clients[J]. Archival Science,2004,4(1/2):17-44. |
23 | Lambert J H .Risk-cost-benefit analysis for port environmental security investments[J].Managing Critical Infrastructure Risks,2007(18):299-318. |
24 | Calandro J . Assessing the risk of M&A:Bruner’s disaster framework applied to Berkshire Hathaway’s Gen Re Acquisition[J].Strategy and Leadership,2008,36(6):20-27. |
25 | Carpenter S , Vellat M . The application of a planned economy country risk model to the assessment of market entry into the Chinese banking sector[J].Journal of Financial Services Marketing,2009,13 (4):345-356. |
26 | Vallascas F , Hagendorff J .The impact of European bank mergers on bidder default risk[J]. Journal of Banking and Finance,2011,35 (4):902-915. |
27 | 张振辉,达庆利 .AHP-GRAM模型在企业兼并风险评价中的应用[J].科研管理,2003,24(3):130-136. |
27 | Zhang Zhenhui , Qingli Da . Application of AHP-GRAM model in enterprise merger risk decision[J].Science Research Management,2003,24(3):130-136. |
28 | 张意翔,胥朝阳,成金华 .基于VaR方法的中国石油企业跨国并购的价格风险评价[J].管理学报,2010,7(3):440-444. |
28 | Zhang Yixiang , Xu Zhaoyang , Cheng Jinhua .Price risk evaluation for overseas merger and acquisition of Chinese oil companies based on VaR modeling[J]. Chinese Journal of Management,2010,7(3):440-444. |
29 | 汪东进,李秀生 .基于情景规划的跨国油气投资战略性风险评价[J].中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2012,36(2):191-195. |
29 | Wang Dongjin , Li Xiusheng . Strategic risk evaluation of overseas oil and gas investment based on scenario planning[J]. Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science),2012,36(2):191-195. |
30 | 陈泽,侯俊东,肖人彬 .中国企业海外并购风险形成因素的层次结构:基于ISM模型[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2013,13(2):126-132. |
30 | Chen Ze , Hou Jundong , Xiao Renbin .The hierarchical structure of the factors forming the risk of Chinese enterprises’ overseas M&A:Based on ISM model[J]. Journal of China University of Geosciences (Social Sciences Edition),2013,13(2):126-132. |
31 | 丁浩,张书通 .海外石油工程项目风险评价——基于粗糙集理论和突变理论[J].科技进步与对策,2013,30(23):60-63. |
31 | Ding Hao , Zhang Shutong . Risk assessment of overseas petroleum engineering projects:Based on rough set theory and catastrophe theory[J].Science and Technology Progress and Policy,2013,30(23):60-63. |
32 | 杨棉之,孙超 .企业内部控制、政治风险与跨国并购绩效——基于SEM的实证分析[J].科学决策,2014(4):1-15. |
32 | Yang Mianzhi , Sun Chao .Internal controls,political risk and transnational M&A performance:An empirical analysis based on SEM[J]. Scientific Decision Making,2014(4):1-15. |
33 | 位春苗 .企业跨国战略并购风险评估及风险规避[J].统计与决策,2015(10):180-182. |
33 | Wei Chunmiao .Risk assessment and risk avoidance of enterprises’ transnational strategic M&A[J]. Statistics and Decision,2015(10):180-182. |
34 | 李一文 .我国海外投资风险预警研究[J].管理世界,2016(9):178-179. |
34 | Li Yiwen .Risk early warning study on China’s overseas investment[J].Management World,2016(9):178-179. |
35 | 文唯,郑明贵,杨瑞成 .海外矿山并购财务风险评价模型的构建及应用——基于GA-AHP和云物元[J].财会月刊,2016(21):97-102. |
35 | Wen Wei , Zheng Minggui , Yang Ruicheng . Financial risk assessment model for overseas mining M&A:Based on GA-AHP and cloud matter element[J]. Finance and Accounting Monthly,2016(21):97-102. |
36 | 国家质量监督检验检疫总局 .固体矿产地质勘查规范总则:GB/T13908-2002[S/OL].[2019-03-20]. . |
36 | General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China . General requirements for solid mineral exploration:GB/T 13908-2002[S/OL].[2019-03-20].. |
37 | 国家技术监督局 .矿区水文地质工程地质勘探规范:GB12719-91[S/OL].[2019-03-20]. . |
37 | State Administration for Technical Supervision of China .Exploration specification of hydrogeology and engineering geology in mining areas:GB12719-91[S/OL].[2019-03-20]. . |
38 | 郑明贵,蔡嗣经 .金属矿山项目开发中的风险因素分析[J].金属矿山,2007,36(1):11-13. |
38 | Zheng Minggui , Cai Sijing . Analysis of the risk factors influencing the metallic mine project exploitation[J].Metal Mine,2007,36(1):11-13. |
/
〈 | 〉 |