基于改进灰色模型的钢铁工业生产能耗预测研究
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邓高,李琪
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Research on Energy Consumption Prediction of Steel Industry Production Based on Improved Grey Models
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Gao DENG,Qi LI
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表4 吨钢综合能耗灰色预测结果
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Table 4 Grey prediction results of comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel(tce/t)
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年份 | 吨钢综合能耗 | DNGM(1,1) | IDGM(1,1) | DDGM(1,1) |
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模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% | 模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% | 模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% |
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平均相对模拟误差/% | 0.7041 | 1.3677 | 1.1043 | 2010 | 598 | 598.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 598.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 598.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2011 | 597 | 600.75 | 3.75 | 0.63 | 597.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 593.23 | -3.77 | 0.63 | 2012 | 598 | 595.71 | -2.29 | 0.38 | 586.21 | -11.79 | 1.97 | 588.72 | -9.28 | 1.55 | 2013 | 590 | 590.70 | 0.70 | 0.12 | 581.45 | -8.55 | 1.45 | 584.45 | -5.55 | 0.94 | 2014 | 585 | 585.73 | 0.73 | 0.13 | 577.06 | -7.94 | 1.36 | 580.41 | -4.59 | 0.79 | 2015 | 580 | 580.80 | 0.80 | 0.14 | 573.03 | -6.97 | 1.20 | 576.58 | -3.42 | 0.59 | 2016 | 583 | 575.90 | -7.10 | 1.22 | 569.31 | -13.69 | 2.35 | 572.95 | -10.05 | 1.72 | 2017 | 576 | 571.03 | -4.97 | 0.86 | 565.89 | -10.11 | 1.76 | 569.52 | -6.48 | 1.13 | 2018 | 569 | 566.20 | -2.80 | 0.49 | 562.74 | -6.26 | 1.10 | 566.26 | -2.74 | 0.48 | 2019 | 553 | 561.41 | 8.41 | 1.52 | 559.84 | 6.84 | 1.24 | 563.19 | 10.19 | 1.84 | 2020 | 549 | 556.64 | 7.64 | 1.39 | 557.17 | 8.17 | 1.49 | 560.27 | 11.27 | 2.05 | 2021 | 550 | 551.92 | 1.92 | 0.35 | 554.71 | 4.71 | 0.86 | 557.51 | 7.51 | 1.37 | 2022 | 554 | 547.22 | -6.78 | 1.22 | 552.44 | -1.556 | 0.28 | 554.90 | 0.90 | 0.16 | 2023 | - | 542.56 | - | - | 550.36 | - | - | 552.42 | - | - | 2024 | - | 537.93 | - | - | 548.44 | - | - | 550.08 | - | - | 2025 | - | 533.34 | - | - | 546.67 | - | - | 547.86 | - | - |
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