基于改进灰色模型的钢铁工业生产能耗预测研究
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邓高,李琪
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Research on Energy Consumption Prediction of Steel Industry Production Based on Improved Grey Models
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Gao DENG,Qi LI
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表5 吨钢可比能耗灰色预测结果
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Table 5 Grey prediction results of comparable energy consumption per ton of steel(tce/t)
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年份 | 吨钢可比能耗 | DNGM(1,1) | IDGM(1,1) | DDGM(1,1) |
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模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% | 模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% | 模拟数据/预测数据 | 残差 | 相对误差/% |
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平均相对模拟误差/% | 0.7369 | 1.3076 | 1.0187 | 2010 | 550 | 550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 550.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2011 | 546 | 551.93 | 5.93 | 1.09 | 546.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 544.81 | -1.19 | 0.22 | 2012 | 545 | 545.94 | 0.94 | 0.17 | 535.13 | -9.87 | 1.81 | 539.64 | -5.36 | 0.98 | 2013 | 543 | 539.88 | -3.12 | 0.58 | 529.79 | -13.21 | 2.43 | 534.49 | -8.51 | 1.57 | 2014 | 539 | 533.76 | -5.24 | 0.97 | 524.50 | -14.50 | 2.69 | 529.36 | -9.64 | 1.79 | 2015 | 532 | 527.58 | -4.42 | 0.83 | 519.28 | -12.72 | 2.39 | 524.25 | -7.75 | 1.46 | 2016 | 525 | 521.34 | -3.66 | 0.70 | 514.11 | -10.89 | 2.08 | 519.16 | -5.84 | 1.11 | 2017 | 513 | 515.04 | 2.04 | 0.40 | 509.00 | -4.01 | 0.78 | 514.09 | 1.09 | 0.21 | 2018 | 505 | 508.68 | 3.68 | 0.73 | 503.94 | -1.06 | 0.21 | 509.04 | 4.04 | 0.80 | 2019 | 497 | 502.26 | 5.26 | 1.06 | 498.94 | 1.94 | 0.39 | 504.02 | 7.02 | 1.41 | 2020 | 493 | 495.77 | 2.77 | 0.56 | 494.00 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 499.01 | 6.01 | 1.22 | 2021 | 487 | 489.22 | 2.22 | 0.46 | 489.11 | 2.11 | 0.43 | 494.02 | 7.02 | 1.44 | 2022 | 489 | 482.60 | -6.40 | 1.31 | 484.27 | -4.727 | 0.97 | 489.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 2023 | - | 475.92 | - | - | 479.49 | - | - | 484.10 | - | - | 2024 | - | 469.17 | - | - | 474.76 | - | - | 479.18 | - | - | 2025 | - | 462.35 | - | - | 470.09 | - | - | 474.27 | - | - |
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